The dynamic model of the economy of the city of Ufa

Doklady Bashkirskogo Universiteta. 2016. Volume 1. No. 1. pp. 178-182.

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The model building results of diagnostics and forecasting of economic activities types are represented in the article. This research represents the analytical support of megalopolis economic development strategy creating. The approach novelty is in the detail analysis of development indicators of economic activity types . This allows to identify the social and economic sphere development problems. Production function based on panel datawhich takes into account interrelations between basic (main) macroeconomic indicators was chosen as economy diagnostics instrument. Preliminary statistical data analysis was done and cause-effect relations were determined in the article. Production function were made for the following branches of the city economy: industrial production, construction, wholesale and retail trade, transport and communication. The represented types of economic activities are main megalopolis economic potential. The modeling period covers 2005 till 2013. Short-term forecasting of macroeconomic indicators was done on received adequate models. As a result of this research we managed to determine competitive advantages and specific problems of megalopolis economic system functioning, analyze basic factors and actions to overcome adverse trends in a future prospect. The received information could be useful for public authorities to solve problems connected with growth of the population welfare, increasing and improvement of living standards of citizens, development of infrastructure, effective prosperity of social and economic sphere of the city, competitive economy development, expansion of external relations.